How to deal with the unexpected

Unless you have been living under a rock recently, you can't help but notice there has been a bit of a conflict going on in the middle east, with the USA and Israel attacking Iran and the unfolding conflicts erupting in other countries as a fall out as the conflict widens.

The USA-Israel-Iran Conflict overview

The ongoing conflict involving the USA, Israel, and Iran has escalated tensions across the globe. While the primary focus remains on military and diplomatic manoeuvres, the ripple effects extend far beyond the immediate region. The situation is fluid, and its outcome remains uncertain, but the global ramifications are already being felt in various sectors.

But it's on the other side of the world, it won't affect me or my business

This is the thing though, it's already having an impact. 

• The cost of fuel at the pumps instantly jumped by, the garage local to us put its price up by 5p per litre. 
• Energy costs on the wholesale gas market are predicted to increase by 40% which gets passed onto the consumer.  
• Supply is being impacted, 20% of the worlds oil production is in statis driving the cost of a barrel of oil skywards, oil is used in the manufacture of:
  • Fuels
  • Plastics
  • Polyester
  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Cleaning agents
  • Cosmetics and personal care
  • Paints
  • Fertilizers
  • in fact the list of things derived from oil is over 6000 items long

So no matter how much you hope, your business will be impacted by this conflict in one way or another.

Then there is the disruption to supply chains and the impact that is having, some regions are now no fly zones, some regions have shipping under direct attack from various threats.

So let's look at how this affect the UK - International Markets and Supply Chains

One of the unexpected consequences of the conflict is the disruption to international markets and supply chains. Volatility in oil prices, currency fluctuations, and shifts in investor confidence have impacted industries worldwide. Even businesses with no direct ties to the affected region are experiencing delays, shortages, and increased costs as global networks adjust to new realities.  Norway has said it is running at maximum natural gas production that will not make up for the shortfall as Qatar ceases supply due to the regional conflict and risk to their production plants.

Energy Prices, Supply Disruptions, and Regulatory Changes

For UK businesses, the fallout is particularly pronounced in several areas. Surges in energy prices have raised operational costs across the board, putting pressure on margins and forcing organisations to reassess budgets. Supply disruptions, especially for goods sourced from or routed through affected areas, have led to unpredictable delivery schedules and inventory challenges. In addition, regulatory changes aimed at tightening security and compliance add further complexity, requiring businesses to stay agile and informed.

What can you do?

• Diversifying Supply Chains: Businesses should seek alternative suppliers and build redundancy into procurement processes to mitigate risks from single points of failure.
• Monitoring Market Developments: Staying informed about geopolitical events and market trends enables proactive responses to sudden changes.  Try to get information from multiple sources to get a balanced view, the world is a lot more partisan and multiple news sources will provide a more realistic and balanced viewpoint. 
• Energy Efficiency Measures: Investing in energy-saving technologies and practices can help reduce exposure to fluctuating prices as well as building in resilience to combat any brown outs or black outs.  Adding something like a UPS to business critical infrastructure will help smooth out any temporary power issues.
• Scenario Planning: Developing contingency plans for various scenarios ensures that organisations are prepared to respond swiftly to unexpected challenges.
• Engaging with Industry Networks: Sharing information and best practices with peers can provide insights and support during turbulent times and multiple businesses coming together can share experience and solutions, helping each over overcome problems they are experiencing.  You might be experiencing a problem someone else has already overcome, they might be experiencing a problem you have overcome, by collaborating and sharing you are pooling knowledge and generating results a lot faster than you could alone.

How to achieve resilience in uncertain times

While it is impossible to predict every outcome of the USA & Israel vs the Iran conflict and its wider regional fallout, your business can benefit from adopting a mindset focused on resilience and adaptability. By expecting the unexpected, organisations not only safeguard their operations but can position themselves to thrive amid uncertain times. In a world where global events can redefine the business landscape overnight, preparedness and redundancy is the best defence that your business can adopt. 

If you would like to find out more about adding resilience to your business, such as fail over internet, or divergent communications, the ability to work from anywhere, data resilience, business continuity planning and disaster recovery, call us on 01722 411 999 for more information. 

These are uncertain times, in the wise words of Franz Kafka:

"it is better to have, and not need, than to need, and not have".